Why the Third Week of December Is the New Black Friday

Query: Why the Third Week of December Is the New Black Friday

Fast Stack

• Headline: You must stop reflexively matching month-long November discounts and instead reserve inventory and budget for late-season exclusives. The favored approach is a collab-led holiday using retailer-exclusive SKUs and store-as-studio pop-up media days.
• Why now: Promotions frontloaded into November compress bargain density across weeks, creating a high-leverage late window if you avoid margin erosion (Nov 19 – Dec 03, 2025 shows this frontloading).
• Next 30 days: Mandate: Head of Retail + Head of Brand Partnerships + CMO lock two exclusive drops and schedule five pop-up media days; analytics lead must instrument QR redemption and event CPA for go/no-go.

Fast Path

Executive Take

You need to win share and profitable store visits late in the season without getting drawn into month-long blanket discounts that bleed margin. Targeted third-week exclusives and events can deliver 10-15% foot-traffic uplift (stretch ≥25%), move early-window share toward 20-30%, keep event CPA at or below ≤0.80× baseline, and secure QR redemptions of ≥5% of footfall. Favor a collab-led holiday with store-as-studio pop-ups; in the next 30 days Head of Retail, Head of Brand Partnerships, and the CMO must lock two retailer-exclusive drops and book five pop-up media days, measuring QR redemption and event CPA to decide scale-up ⁶².

Highlights

• November promotions are frontloaded and dilute bargain density; matching them erodes margin with limited late-season lift.
• Retailer-exclusive SKUs and in-store events convert at higher rates than blanket discounts and protect margin when paired with limited inventory holds.
• Measure QR redemptions and event CPA alongside footfall to attribute buyers, with QR ≥5% and CPA ≤0.80× as gating metrics.

Top Operator Moves

• Stop blanket November matching: assign a weekly margin-per-trip target and reserve inventory plus 20–30% of marketing budget for late-season exclusives.
• Pilot two retailer-exclusive SKUs in select stores (Dec 15–21 target window) with Brand Partnerships; aim for QR redemption ≥5% of footfall and foot-traffic uplift ≥10-15% in test stores.
• Book five store pop-up media days (Dec 18–20) owned by Head of Retail and CMO, and run event CPA tests with a ceiling of ≤0.80× baseline to validate scale.

Plays

• Third-week exclusives + pop-up media days — Traffic uplift meets 10-15% (stretch ≥25%), early-window buyer share moves toward 20-30%, QR redemption hits ≥5% of footfall, and event CPA is ≤0.80× baseline.

For operators and collab leads

Spine: What: Promotions start earlier and lengthen, weakening November concentration. | Proof: Success = Nov 19–Dec 03 test stores deliver ≥10% incremental footfall, early-window share moves toward 20–30%, event CPA ≤0.8× baseline and QR redemptions ≥5% of entries. | Move: Events and pop-ups convert paid media into owned moments with lower CPA.

Signal Map

• Behavioral — Crowds Without Conversion (6-week) Spine hook: High store traffic is not guaranteeing sales unless offers convert. Stores are seeing record Black Friday foot traffic while shoppers find fewer standout bargains and curb spending. High traffic that does not convert raises the value of exclusives and experiences that materially change purchase choice rather than shallow price cuts. Operator scan: Measure conversion rate per hour alongside average ticket and promo depth. Operator move: Run an in-store exclusive giveaway on Nov 28 owned by Head of Retail + CMO, measure QR redemptions as ≥5% of footfall and conversion uplift versus baseline. ²⁶
• Market — Exclusive Giveaways Drive Store Wins (6-week) Spine hook: Exclusives and drops are outperforming shallow online discounts. Retail winners this season leaned on exclusives and in-store giveaways to pull shoppers into stores despite flat online discounts. That tactic creates a clear collaboration wedge where brands can buy upstream attention and convert visits into full-price or premium purchases. Operator scan: Track sales lift for exclusive SKUs vs. comparable non-exclusive SKUs. Operator move: Pilot two retailer-exclusive SKUs or drops Dec 15–21 with Head of Brand Partnerships, target a 25% foot traffic uplift in test stores and QR redemption ≥5%. ⁶¹
• Cultural — Store-as-Studio Becomes a Media Buy (quarter) Spine hook: Stores are being sold as event-driven media inventory. Retailers are using stores as production and media venues to run events and exclusive experiences that create owned attention. That turns partnerships into a hybrid media buy where brands capture high-intent impressions and measurable in-store actions rather than competing on sitewide discounts. Operator scan: Count in-store media impressions, QR scans, and attributed purchases per event day. Operator move: Book five store pop-up media days Dec 18–20 with Head of Retail, measure event CPA ≤0.8× baseline and QR redemption ≥5% of foot traffic. ⁶¹

Measurement Spine

Anchors

• Incremental footfall uplift (%): Test stores should achieve 1015% incremental footfall vs matched controls; stretch target ≥25%. (Head of Retail)
• Early-window share (%): Grow event-period footfall share to 2030% of season footfall (current ~1215%). (Head of Analytics)
• Event CPA ratio (event CPA ÷ baseline CPA) guardrail: Keep event CPA at or below 0.8× baseline; pause or reallocate media if observed >0.8. (Head of Performance Marketing)
• QR redemption rate (% of footfall): Aim for QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall during activation days to validate conversion signal. (Head of Retail)
• QR redemption stop threshold (% of footfall) guardrail: Stop the play in a store if QR redemptions fall below 2% of footfall. (Head of Retail)
• Observed Buyer activity share vs promo intensity: Measure buyer activity share against promo depth by store and day; target and guardrails TBD pending attribution setup. (Head of Analytics)

Measurement Plan

• Incremental Footfall Uplift (%) (Head of Retail, Nov 19–Dec 03 (14 days) with 7-day post window) — Test stores with exclusives/drops vs matched-control stores, normalized for weekday, weather, and baseline trends Why it matters: Direct test of whether exclusives drive the 10–15% base uplift without broad price cuts.
• Early-Window Share (%) (Head of Analytics, Daily measurement; cumulative report on Dec 04) — Event-period footfall (Nov 19–Dec 03) / season footfall (Nov 1–Dec 31) Why it matters: Shows whether traffic is shifting into the late window to approach the 20–30% goal.
• Event Cpa Ratio (Head of Performance Marketing, Campaign runtime + 7-day conversion attribution) — Paid-media $ allocated to event ÷ attributable in-store conversions during event, divided by baseline CPA (October avg) Why it matters: Immediate guardrail on media spend. Pause or reallocate if ratio exceeds 0.8.
• Qr Redemption Rate And Buyer-Activity Share Vs Promo Intensity (Head of Retail Operations / Head of Analytics, Measure daily; compare test vs control stores during Nov 19–Dec 03) — QR redemptions / store entries; buyer activity share = buyers from QR / total buyers; promo intensity = average advertised % discount on featured items Why it matters: Pairs conversion quality to promo depth so we drive buyers not bargain browsers. Use as go/no-go on broader discounting. Note: Buyer activity share in the early window is tracked separately from SKU promo share to protect margin while growing participation.

Deep Analysis

Promo season frontloads and compresses November value: Promotions start earlier and lengthen, weakening November concentration.

Retailers are opening Black Friday deals well before the official weekend and stretching discounts through November, so peak bargain density no longer lives in a single weekend ⁴⁵⁷. That frontloading spreads shopper demand across more weeks and reduces the leverage of matching deep November promos, which erodes margin without reliably growing true late-season buyer share ²⁸. Practical result: the concentrated promotional pressure you felt in November is now a diluted background, leaving a later high-value window if you target it correctly ⁴². Operator note: Stop reflexively matching every early November discount. Map your promo depth by calendar week and stop any broad discount that does not beat your weekly margin-per-trip target. Reserve a share of inventory and marketing budget for the third week of December. Use exclusives and events there instead of lifting all SKUs. Instrument next: Instrument weekly promo share, margin per store visit, and buyer conversion by week so you can compare November versus third-week-of-December economics.

Exclusives lift conversion and preserve margin: In-store exclusives convert better than blanket discounts.

Retail winners in 2025 leaned on exclusive giveaways and retailer-only drops to pull customers into stores and convert them, not just spike traffic with shallow discounts ⁶. Exclusives create scarcity and a differentiated value proposition that raises conversion and average order value while protecting unit margin compared with undifferentiated price cuts ⁶². Compared to discount-heavy approaches, exclusives trade peak footfall for higher quality visits and better post-event loyalty signals when paired with owned media activation ⁶. Operator note: Design 1–2 limited-run exclusives per format and test them in a small cluster of stores. Price them to protect margin. Promote each exclusive with dedicated creative and a redemption mechanism (QR or barcode) that ties the in-store visit back to a marketing channel. Measure conversion and AOV per exclusive versus matched discount control stores. Instrument next: Instrument QR redemption rate, conversion rate, average order value, and margin per visit comparing exclusive-drop stores to matched discount-control stores.

Discount depth versus collaboration tradeoffs: Heavy discounts drive traffic but compress margin; collaborations protect value.

Deep, broad discounts reliably lift foot traffic but they also lower margin per visit and train customers to wait, which undercuts late-season profitability ²⁸. Collaborative plays such as retailer-exclusive SKUs or brand drops limit price erosion, concentrate demand, and deliver higher-margin conversions though they may produce lower absolute footfall unless paired with event amplification ⁶¹. Moving from discounts to collabs breaks assumptions around volume forecasting and requires tighter inventory controls and retailer alignment, but it preserves unit economics and media ROI when executed with event support ⁶². Operator note: Decide your axis: if you must buy volume, use targeted discounts on commodity SKUs only. If you care about profitable visits, allocate budget to collaborations, exclusives, and events. Build retailer SLAs for exclusives and holdback inventory to avoid dilution. Run one A/B test of discount-heavy vs collaboration-led promotions in matched markets during the third week of December. Instrument next: Instrument margin per trip, foot-traffic uplift, and media CPM-to-conversion ratio for discount-led stores versus collaboration-led stores over the same holiday week.

Turn stores into owned media to lower CPA: Events and pop-ups convert paid media into owned moments with lower CPA.

In-store events and pop-up media days convert media spend into owned content and on-site urgency, which reduces paid acquisition cost per buyer when promoted properly ⁶. That channel move compresses CPA because the store acts as an earned-media amplifier: attendees create social proof and deliver higher buyer activity share post-event ⁶¹. If you keep event CPA below 0.8× baseline and hit QR redemption floors, media value shifts from short-term clicks to repeatable store ROI ⁶. Operator note: Shift a slice of digital and paid-social spend into event-driven creative promoting specific store dates. Book five pop-up days in week three of December in high-cap stores. Coordinate inventory and staffing to avoid stockouts. Track event attribution to media campaigns and push earned creative into paid follow-ups. Instrument next: Instrument event-level CPA, incremental sales per media dollar, QR redemption as percent of footfall, and post-event repeat rate versus baseline store weeks.

Pattern Matches

• November dilution of Black Friday Then: Retailers historically concentrated deep discounts on the Friday after Thanksgiving and captured most seasonal volume in a tight window. Now: Retailers run deals across weeks — pre-Black Friday sales, Black Friday Week and month-long promos — which spreads traffic and leaves fewer late bargains. Operator leap: Shift 5% of November paid media to run identical creative Dec 15–21; measure CPA, buyer share and margin per buyer versus the original November run.
• Early openings normalize promotions Then: Brands once relied on a single compressed event; stores opened earlier year over year to chase the same one-day surge. Now: Retailers now launch pre-Black Friday and even October deals to smooth logistics and capture early demand, reducing the punch of any single date. Operator leap: Test a Nov 19–28 light-discount 'reserve online, pick up in-store' window versus a single deep-discount day; compare conversion rate, AOV and margin per buyer.
• In-store exclusives drive valuable footfall Then: Doorbusters and store-only offers historically forced high-value in-store visits and incremental conversion on the sales floor. Now: Retailers won this season with exclusive giveaways and in-store-only enticements that brought shoppers to stores even while online discounts were flat. Operator leap: Run an in-store exclusive giveaway on Nov 28 run by Retail + CMO; track QR-code redemptions aiming for ≥5% of footfall and measure conversion uplift versus matched stores.
• Retailer-exclusive SKUs as a conversion lever Then: Brands and retailers used exclusive product drops to create scarcity and drive both traffic and higher conversion in stores. Now: Exclusives and limited drops are back as a way to create differentiated demand when broad discounts are commoditized. Operator leap: Pilot two retailer-exclusive SKUs Dec 15–21 with Brand Partnerships; target a ≥25% foot-traffic lift in pilot stores and QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall.
• Month-long discounting compresses late-season margin Then: Concentrated discounting preserved negotiating leverage and margin late in the season. Now: Extended November discounting has left fewer true bargains; shoppers find less differentiation and retailers face margin pressure in late-season windows. Operator leap: Run a margin-scenario model: compare a spread-discount November plan versus a concentrated Dec 15–21 promotional window and pick the plan with higher margin per buyer for a downstream test.
• Store pop-ups as owned media Then: Holiday events and pop-ups historically concentrated high-intent shoppers into controlled experiences that drove higher conversion. Now: Operators can turn stores into media venues with pop-up events and exclusive activations to capture late-season high-value purchases. Operator leap: Book five store pop-up media days Dec 18–20; measure event CPA ≤0.8× baseline and QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall to validate owned-media ROI.

Brand & Operator Outcomes

• Shift 20% of seasonal demand into Dec 15–21 without matching November discount depth (Head of Retail + Head of Brand Partnerships · Holiday 2025 pilot (Dec 15 621)): Run a coordinated program of limited retailer-exclusive drops and in-store experiential moments in Dec 15–21 to pull high-value visits later in the season while avoiding month-long blanket discounts. Retailers that leaned on exclusives and in-store giveaways captured footfall without broad price erosion, so limit SKU depth and use scarcity instead of sitewide price cuts ⁶². You will see the test succeed as a 20% shift of seasonal demand into the Dec 15–21 window, ≥25% foot-traffic uplift in test stores, and maintained margin per unit versus November baseline. (Impact: Throughput and incremental margin (capture high-intent visits while protecting ASP))
• Treat stores as local media studios to keep event CPA at-or-below baseline (Head of Marketing / CRM + Retail Ops · Next 90 days to holiday 2025 execution): Reallocate media spend from blanket national discount messaging to hyperlocal paid social and in-store event promotion so CPAs fall below baseline while driving incremental footfall. Media-led store events and exclusive in-store offers have outperformed simple online discounting by creating reasons to visit physically, reducing reliance on deep online price cuts ⁶⁴. Track success by event CPA ≤0.8× baseline and a rise in buyer activity share versus promo intensity. (Impact: Event CPA reduction and loyalty (lower acquisition cost per store visit))
• Pilot two retailer-exclusive SKUs to drive conversion, not just traffic (Head of Brand Partnerships · Holiday 2025 pilot (Dec 15 621)): Launch two limited-run SKUs sold only through partner stores in the late-season week to attract high-intent shoppers without broad discounting. Exclusive merchandise creates urgency and justifies in-store trips; winners during recent seasons used exclusives to convert visits into purchases rather than only generating traffic ⁶¹. Measure a target of ≥25% foot-traffic uplift in pilot stores and QR redemption ≥5% of footfall to validate conversion versus mere curiosity. (Impact: Incremental margin and conversion (higher basket value, lower promo leakage))
• Use short pop-up media days and QR redemption to quantify profitable late-season demand (Retail Ops + CRM · Holiday 2025 (Dec 18 620 test window)): Run five store pop-up media days Dec 18–20 pairing local PR, short paid bursts, and QR-gated exclusives to measure true purchase intent and defend margin. Short, concentrated events reduce calendar-wide discount pressure and give a clean test of in-store conversion vs. November promo behavior observed in the market ⁶². Success shows as QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall, event CPA ≤0.8× baseline, and a higher buyer activity share per promo intensity than November. (Impact: Paired metric tracking (buyer activity share vs promo intensity) and throughput)

Activation Kit

One-day in-store giveaway to convert footfall with QR capture

Pillar: Retail Activation · Persona: Head of Retail, CMO · Time horizon: immediate Why now: November promos are diluted by frontloading; a single focused date recaptures attention without heavy margin erosion. Thresholds: Aim for QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall and event CPA ≤0.8× baseline; stop the play if QR redemption falls under 2% or CPA exceeds baseline. Fit: Best for High-footfall stores with simple POS and available staff for a short promo; Not for Small-format stores without door counts or strict margin constraints. Proof: Comparable quick-play pilots tracked QR redemption ≥5% of footfall when run as an in-store exclusive. Placement options: Entrance welcome table with staff + QR poster, Checkout island with branded collateral, Endcap display with QR-triggered offer Target map: - Head of Retail (Retailer): Runs and staff approvals; owns in-store operations and day-of execution - CMO (Brand): Provides creative offer and campaign measurement targets - Store Manager (Store): Executes setup, tracks redemptions, reports footfall Cadence: - Day 0: Kickoff: giveaway brief — Share objectives, store list, creative, and measurement plan in one page. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 2: Logistics reconfirm — Confirm QR assets, staff schedule, and inventory per store. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 5: Post-event close — Collect redemptions, door counts, and CPA to compare against targets. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of Retail x CMO | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: Yes | Ops drag: low

Short-run exclusive SKUs or bundles in test stores

Pillar: Retail Partnerships · Persona: Head of Brand Partnerships, Head of Retail · Time horizon: pilot Why now: November discount frontloading reduces lift; mid-December exclusives capture concentrated high-value trips. Thresholds: Protect margin: margin per order should not fall below baseline minus 100 bps and 90‑day repeat must meet baseline; expect foot-traffic uplift ≥25% in test stores and QR redemption ≥5% of footfall during the drop. Fit: Best for Flagship or high-traffic stores with inventory segregation capabilities; Not for Stores lacking inventory control, barcode setup, or long lead-time supply. Proof: Market pilots show exclusive drops can lift store foot traffic by ~25% when targeted to high-pull locations. Placement options: Endcap exclusive block with brand callouts, Gondola island reserved for the drop, Dedicated shelf bay with exclusive POS Target map: - Head of Retail (Retailer): Owns shelf allocation and in-store staffing for the drop - Head of Brand Partnerships (Brand): Owns product, creative, and wholesale terms for exclusivity - Regional Merchandiser (Merchandising): Implements planogram and ensures inventory flow Cadence: - Day 0: Pilot kickoff and acceptance criteria — Issue pilot plan with store list, metrics, and margin guardrails. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 7: Instrumentation check — Confirm SKU scans, POS pricing, door counts, and QR tracking are live. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 21: Pilot review and go/no-go — Compare margin, foot-traffic uplift, and 90-day repeat projections to thresholds. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of Brand Partnerships x Head of Retail | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: No | Ops drag: high

Concentrated in-store pop-ups with media and demos

Pillar: Event-driven Conversion · Persona: Head of Retail, Head of PR, CMO · Time horizon: 6-week Why now: With November promotions spread out, the third week of December concentrates higher-value shoppers—use media days to capture them. Thresholds: Target event CPA ≤0.8× baseline and QR redemptions ≥15% of footfall; pause if CPA exceeds baseline or redemption drops near single digits. Fit: Best for Flagship stores or large-format locations with event space and local media reach; Not for Small footprints, locations without event permits, or where staffing cannot be expanded. Proof: Short pop-up windows around Dec 18–20 historically generate higher-value trips and PR pickup in comparable runs. Placement options: Store atrium pop-up with demo stations, Weekend media day with influencer or press slots, Ticketed meet-and-greet zone inside a flagship Target map: - Head of Retail (Retailer): Approves event use of space, staffing, and operational permits - Head of Partnerships (Brand): Owns talent, PR invites, and brand experience content - Head of PR (Comms): Runs media outreach and measures earned coverage Cadence: - Day 0: Event kickoff and operational plan — Share run-of-show, staffing, safety plan, and measurement requirements. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 14: Logistics reconfirm — Lock media list, RSVPs, POS setup, and ticketing status. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 28: Pre-event readiness review — Run a dry-check on instrumentation, staff roles, and last-mile deliveries. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of Retail x Head of Partnerships and PR | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: Yes | Ops drag: medium

The Brand Collab Lab turns these plays into named concepts, deck spines, and outreach ready for partner teams.

Risk Radar

• Matching early-November deals erodes margin without net buyer gain. (Severity 3, Likelihood 3) Trigger: Retailers frontload and stretch November discounts, prompting reactive broad matching across assortment. Detection: Track weekly promo share, margin per store visit, and buyer conversion by week; alert if margin-per-trip drops >10% vs baseline while buyer lift <5%. Mitigation: Reserve inventory and marketing budget for the third week of December; stop any broad discount that fails to exceed the weekly margin-per-trip target; run week-by-week price experiments instead of blanket cuts.
• In-store exclusives replace regular purchases instead of acquiring new buyers. (Severity 2, Likelihood 2) Trigger: Launching exclusives without matched controls or clear product differentiation. Detection: Measure exclusive SKU sales against net store category sales and unique buyer counts; flag if exclusive sales account for >20% of uplift while unique buyers do not increase. Mitigation: Require an A/B test with matched control stores for every exclusive; tag exclusives in POS and stop rollouts where cannibalization rate >40% after two weeks.
• Store events deliver higher acquisition cost than baseline and low engagement. (Severity 2, Likelihood 2) Trigger: Poor pre-registration, weak local promotion, or low QR redemption at events. Detection: Monitor event CPA versus baseline CPA and QR redemption as a share of footfall; abort if CPA >1.0× baseline or QR redemption <5%. Mitigation: Condition event spend on pre-registration and a ≥5% QR redemption forecast; cancel or scale back events that miss preregistration thresholds one week prior.
• Instrumentation gaps produce misleading comparison results and bad decisions. (Severity 3, Likelihood 2) Trigger: Mismatched attribution windows, missing UTMs, unsynced time zones, or POS integration errors during tests. Detection: Compare POS, web analytics, and QR scan counts daily; flag divergences >8% or missing UTM rates >5%. Mitigation: Standardize week definitions and attribution windows; run end-to-end instrumentation tests across three pilot stores and hold launches until a checklist passes.

Future Outlook

• 6-month Exclusives and events reclaim late-season visits: If true, we will see QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall and a concentrated third-week December visit uplift within 6 months (confidence 0.75) You wake up to a holiday where early-November discount noise is background and high-value store events drive late-season spikes ⁴². Partner-exclusive SKUs, in-store giveaways, and pop-up media days concentrate demand, lift per-visit margin, and produce measurable QR redemptions you can track in real time ⁶¹. If you run these tactics at scale you will celebrate profitable late-season visits; if you match broad discounts you will regret margin erosion and missed premium share ². Watch QR redemptions as a percent of footfall (target ≥5%) for Pilot retailer-exclusive SKUs plus five pop-up media days to drive a 25%+ foot‑traffic uplift in test stores while holding margin per visit
• 12-month Stores become media hubs or margin defaults to prolonged discounting: If true, we will see partner-driven limited drops and repeat event calendars shift 25–30% of late-season visits to higher-margin formats within 12 months (confidence 0.65) You wake up to a retail year where store performance is judged by exclusive drops and content days rather than who ran the deepest November discount ⁴². Repeated retailer partnerships, scheduled media-pop days, and retailer-exclusive SKUs normalize higher conversion per visit and protect gross margin while non-partners default to margin-destroying blanket discounts ⁶¹². If you institutionalize the store-as-studio model you will celebrate differentiated late-season traffic and preserved margin; if you fail to, you will be forced into constant discounting and market share decline on price terms ⁸². Watch Margin per store visit in week 51 (third week of December) for Scale exclusive drops and media days across key retail partners to shift 25–30% of late-season visits to higher-margin events and maintain overall holiday gross margin

Sources

Appendix Signals

• Investor-Season Retail Sentiment: held for later window (strength 0.00)
• Month-Long Early Discounting (Oct Start): held for later window (strength 0.00)
• Advice Pieces and Shopper Guides: held for later window (strength 0.00)
• Frontloaded Deep-Discount Window: held for later window (strength 0.90) ¹⁴⁷
• Promotional Calendar Creep Reduces Urgency: held for later window (strength 0.80) ⁴⁵⁷⁸