Why Consumer Bargain Hunting Is Reshaping December Demand Patterns

Query: Why Consumer Bargain Hunting Is Reshaping December Demand Patterns

Fast Stack

• Headline: Stop relying on blanket markdowns; deploy collab-led and store-as-studio activations to capture early-window demand without margin bleed. Measure partner-funded activation performance by foot-traffic uplift, early-window share, event CPA, and QR redemption.
• Why now: The Nov 24 - Dec 08, 2025 window compresses bargain-driven demand; visible discounts rapidly shift timing and urgency and can cannibalize early full-price sales if unchecked.
• Next 30 days: Marketing must stand up two partner pop-ups and Store Ops must run one studio weekend activation, instrument QR-to-POS tracking and cohort margin, and report against the unified targets; pause mass markdowns if contribution margin deteriorates.

Fast Path

Executive Take

You need to capture December sales without eroding margin by leaning into collaborations and timed value rather than blanket discounts in the Nov 24 - Dec 08, 2025 window. Target lifting early-window share from 12-15% toward 20-30% while driving 10-15% foot-traffic uplift (stretch ≥25%), keeping event CPA at or below ≤0.80× baseline and securing QR redemptions of ≥5% of footfall to prove non-markdown acquisition value ¹³. In the next 30 days prioritize a collab-led and store-as-studio approach: run two partner pop-ups plus one media-funded weekend studio activation, instrument per-SKU sell-through, cohort margin, and QR redemption, and assign Marketing to own pop-ups and Store Ops to own in-store activations so you can stop mass markdowns if contribution margin collapses ¹⁷.

Highlights

• Visible discounts concentrate planned full-price purchases into short promo windows; this raises conversion but lowers per-buyer margin and early-window durable demand.
• Shallow, partner-funded activations and studio weekends move foot traffic with less cannibalization than broad markdowns when measured by new-vs-repeat cohort margin and QR-redemption share.
• Dynamic one-day flash pricing tied to competitor checks can cut event CPA toward the ≤0.80× ceiling if discount scope and SKU depth are tightly controlled.

Top Operator Moves

• Run two collaborator pop-up weekends and one store-as-studio media activation in the Nov 24 - Dec 08 window; require partner media funding and a QR offer that must hit ≥5% redemption of footfall.
• Deploy a one-day dynamic flash price test for targeted SKUs with real-time competitor-price checks owned by E-comm; cap depth per SKU and measure event CPA against the ≤0.80× baseline.
• Instrument per-SKU sell-through, contribution margin by cohort (new vs repeat), early-window share, and per-visitor yield; pause mass markdowns if contribution margin falls below target thresholds.

Plays

• Collab-led pop-up weekends — Foot-traffic uplift 10-15% (stretch ≥25%), early-window share 20-30%, event CPA ≤0.80× baseline, and QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall.

For operators and collab leads

Spine: What: Discount events concentrate demand and shorten purchase cycles | Proof: Raise early-window buyer share toward 20%+ while delivering 10–15% store traffic lift and keeping event CPA ≤0.8× baseline with QR redemptions ≥5% of visitors. | Move: Turn store events into measurable media channels with partner funding

Signal Map

• Technology — Faster Price Discovery Via AI and Search (6-week) Spine hook: AI speeds price discovery and raises promo sensitivity. AI-driven personalization and search tools accelerated record online Black Friday spending and compressed the time shoppers take to find bargains. Real-time price transparency raises promo elasticity and rewards faster, targeted offers over slow broad markdowns. Operator scan: Log competitor-price hits and flash-sale conversion minute-by-minute. Operator move: E-commerce: deploy a real-time competitor-price check and run a one-day dynamic flash price test during Nov 24 12 Dec 08, 2025, owned by E-comm, targeting a reduction in event CPA to ≤0.80× baseline. ³¹
• Cultural — Gen Z Trades Spend For Value and Experience (now) Spine hook: Gen Z chooses value and experiences over mass luxury. Gen Z is saving more and selectively spends on experiences or unique collaborations rather than mass luxury buys. Collaboration-led in-store events or limited drops engage this cohort while keeping headline discounts lower. Operator scan: Check Gen Z conversion and QR engagement versus non-event days. Operator move: Marketing + Store Ops: run two collaborator pop-ups aimed at Gen Z during Nov 24 12 Dec 08, 2025, owned by Marketing, and target QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall and conversion lift among under-30s by +3 percentage points. ¹⁶⁷
• Behavioral — Store-As-Studio Lowers Broad Promo Need (6-week) Spine hook: Treat stores as media to avoid blanket markdowns. Using stores as media and experience studios converts foot traffic into higher-margin sales when paired with co-branded content and short-term offers. Operators can trade broad discount depth for measured in-store events that deliver trackable QR-based conversion and higher per-visitor yield. Operator scan: Compare per-visitor yield and QR redemption share on activation weekends. Operator move: Store Ops + Partnerships: run two store-as-studio weekend activations with partner-funded media and measure per-visitor yield and QR redemption share during Nov 24 12 Dec 08, 2025, aiming for QR redemptions ≥5% and foot traffic uplift of 10-15%. ¹⁷

Measurement Spine

Anchors

• Event CPA vs baseline: 302020  (Performance Marketing)
• QR redemptions as share of footfall: 5 percent (Marketing)
• Foot-traffic uplift during activations: 1020% uplift vs baseline visits during activations (stretch goal ) (Store Operations)
• Early-window sales share (Nov 24Dec 08): 2030% of December demand captured in the Nov 24Dec 08 window versus the prior baseline of ~1215%. (Head of Marketing)
• Conversion lift among customers under 30: Increase conversion rate for customers under 30 by at least 3 percentage points vs baseline during activations. (Marketing)
• Margin change per order (bps) guardrail: Limit margin erosion to no worse than -100 basis points per order during the pilot. (Finance)

Measurement Plan

• Event Cpa (By Tactic) (Performance Marketing, Nov 24 – Dec 08, 2025 (daily cadence, final report Day+3)) — CPA during Nov 24–Dec 08 for each tactic / baseline CPA (last comparable event). Track paid search, paid social, influencer, and partner-funded media separately. Why it matters: Keeps margin guardrail. If CPA >0.8× baseline, pause paid channels or reallocate to partner-funded media.
• Qr Redemptions As Share Of Footfall; Conversion Lift Under-30 (Marketing + Store Ops, Nov 24 – Dec 08, 2025 (per-event and cumulative)) — QR scans redeemed / store visits (per activation day) and purchase conversion rate for customers <30 vs baseline. Why it matters: Proves timed-value tradeoff vs blanket discounts. Stop activations that fail QR ≥5% of visitors or do not lift sub-30 conversion by ≥3pp.
• Foot-Traffic Uplift And Per-Visitor Yield (Store Ops + Finance, Nov 24 – Dec 08, 2025 (weekend-level)) — (Visits during activation − baseline visits) / baseline visits; and incremental revenue / incremental visit. Why it matters: Confirms whether activations drive net new visits and maintain margin per visit. Target 10–15% uplift and positive incremental yield.
• Buyer Activity Share Vs Promo Intensity (Paired Metric) (Analytics, Daily across Nov 24 – Dec 08, 2025; synthesize after event) — Plot buyer activity share (early-window purchases %) side-by-side with promo intensity index (avg discount depth × share of SKUs discounted) by day and tactic. Why it matters: Shows whether increased early-window share is driven by timing/collabs or by deeper markdowns. Use to decide scale or stop of promos. Note: Buyer activity share in the early window is tracked separately from SKU promo share to protect margin while growing participation.

Deep Analysis

Bargain windows compress full-price demand: Discount events concentrate demand and shorten purchase cycles

Holiday bargain hunting is concentrating spend into event windows while overall spending strength looks fragile, so volume spikes do not equal durable lift ³⁴. The mechanism is simple: visible discounts shift timing and urgency, pulling planned full-price purchases into promo days and raising conversion but lowering average ticket and margin per buyer. Relative to collab-led or media-led approaches, discount-heavy tactics buy immediate foot traffic at the cost of margin and higher cannibalization of early-window full-price sales. Operator note: If you run heavy discounts expect short, high-volume pulses and lower contribution margin. Do not assume peak-day sales scale to the rest of December. Test discounts as a traffic driver not as a profit source: limit SKU scope, set shallow depth caps, and isolate new-customer vs existing-customer cohorts so you can see real acquisition value. Instrument next: Instrument sell-through, margin contribution, and buyer cohort (new vs repeat) on discount days versus adjacent non-discount days for the same SKUs.

Discount depth hits a margin cliff fast: Deeper markdowns raise traffic but erode profit and reduce early-window share

Incremental discount depth gives declining traffic returns while cutting margin, and price-sensitive shoppers reprice expectations for future seasons ³⁸. Mechanically, big markdowns convert marginal buyers and shift previously full-price demand into promotional windows, lowering lifetime value and inviting competitor repricing. Moving from shallow, targeted discounts to deep broad discounts breaks margin control and reduces the share of full-price early-window sales you can capture. Operator note: Cap markdown depth and test targeted, timed discounts on a limited SKU set. Use control stores without markdowns to track cannibalization. If deep discounts are unavoidable, pair them with acquisition gating (first-time buyer codes, membership upsell) to recapture lifetime value. Instrument next: Instrument incremental traffic per percentage point of discount, margin erosion per SKU, and cannibalization rate measured as decline in full-price sales in control stores.

Gen Z responds to value plus culture, not price only: Young shoppers chase value framed as cultural relevance, not just lower price

Gen Z is tightening holiday budgets but is more likely to engage with brands through collaborations and experiences that carry social value and perceived savings ¹⁶. That means pop-ups, limited drops, and co-branded activations can deliver higher-quality traffic and earned media per dollar than mass markdowns because they trade immediate discount depth for relevance and shareable moments. When you switch from broad discounts to collabs you lose some short-term conversion but gain higher media value and incremental early-window share among under-30 buyers. Operator note: Run two collaborator pop-ups targeted at under-30s during the window. Keep discounts narrow, use exclusive SKUs or bundles, require QR check-ins to capture identity, and tie partner media spend to redemption KPIs. Prioritize partners who bring audience access not just cash. Instrument next: Instrument QR redemptions, conversion lift among under-30s, earned social impressions per dollar of partner spend, and share of early-window purchases from collab activations versus baseline.

Store-as-studio converts media into measurable foot traffic: Turn store events into measurable media channels with partner funding

Using stores as event studios lets operator teams convert partner-funded media into predictable foot traffic and measurable per-visitor yield, while preserving SKU margins versus blanket markdowns ¹⁷. The mechanism is partner media funding plus on-site activation that pushes visitors to redeem QR offers or scan to transact, creating a direct media-to-commerce attribution path. Compared with discounts, store-as-studio preserves full-price options and shifts the cost of traffic to partners, but it requires tight orchestration of measurement and partner guarantees to avoid free-riding. Operator note: Run two weekend store-as-studio activations with partner-funded media. Make partners commit to CPM or CPX plus a guaranteed visitor uplift. Normalize offers to non-markdown value (experiential add-ons, limited bundles) and enforce QR gating for redemption so every visit is measurable. Instrument next: Instrument per-visitor yield, QR redemption rate as share of footfall, partner media CPM/CPA, and uplift in visitation versus matched-store baseline during activation weekends.

Pattern Matches

• Value-channel resilience Then: Off-price chain Ross raised its annual profit forecast after shoppers bought discounted apparel and accessories, showing demand for value held in a tight consumer market. Now: In December, budget-minded segments concentrate spend in value channels, so broad cut-price tactics shift share toward discount players and compress margins for full-price assortments. Operator leap: Run a 72-hour targeted 20% off on core-value SKUs in 20 stores plus matching site banners; measure store foot traffic, revenue per-visitor and margin per-transaction vs control and stop if margin per-transaction falls >5%.
• Short-window dynamic pricing Then: Retailers historically leaned on sitewide Black Friday promotions to drive traffic spikes and clear inventory. Now: AI-enabled pricing and competitor signals make it possible to run one-day dynamic flash prices on key SKUs to defend event CPA without opening a long tail of markdowns. Operator leap: Deploy real-time competitor-price checks and run a 24-hour dynamic flash-price test on top-200 SKUs during the window; target event CPA ≤0.80× baseline and compare net margin impact to a matched static discount cohort.
• Timed limited drops over blanket cuts Then: Luxury houses' years of price hikes led to customer pushback and reduced loyalty when shoppers felt priced out. Now: Brands can protect full-price economics by offering limited early-window value drops or small-quantity bundles rather than broad markdowns that reset reference prices. Operator leap: Launch three limited-quantity 'early-window bundles' (released Nov 27 at 10:00) and A/B them against a 15% sitewide discount; track early-window sales share, repeat purchase rate, and margin per-order.
• Gen Z collaborator pop-ups Then: Pop-up collaborations historically drove trial by creating novelty and urgency in-store. Now: Gen Z prefers experiences and value; partner pop-ups with creators can convert younger footfall using QR activations and social hooks instead of coupon blasts. Operator leap: Run two partner-funded Gen Z pop-ups during the window; require QR entry for redemptions, target QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall and conversion lift among under-30s by +3 percentage points.
• Store-as-studio media leverage Then: Retail activations and in-store events have been used to create earned media and short-term traffic uplifts. Now: Treat stores as content studios: run weekend activations with partner media funding to pay for reach and measure per-visitor yield instead of discounting to buy attention. Operator leap: Execute two weekend 'store-as-studio' activations with partner-funded media; measure per-visitor revenue, QR redemption share, and foot-traffic uplift; stop if uplift <10% or QR <5% of footfall.
• Targeted loyalty over mass markdowns Then: When pockets of consumers reacted to higher prices by trading down or pausing purchases, blanket price increases eroded long-term relationships. Now: With shoppers behaving more price sensitive, targeted loyalty incentives preserve margin while capturing purchase intent better than blanket discounts. Operator leap: Test a member-only 15% premium-SKU discount versus a 10% sitewide markdown for two weeks; measure repeat-buy rate at 30 days and net margin impact, and scale the winner.

Brand & Operator Outcomes

• Move 20% of December demand into the early window using timed collaborator drops (Partnerships · Nov 24 Dec 08, 2025): Reserve limited inventory and partner-exclusive offers for Nov 24 – Dec 08 to shift demand earlier without broad markdowns. Collaborations and scarcity drive urgency among value-seeking younger shoppers, letting you capture sales at higher margin than blanket discounts ¹⁶⁷. You will see early_window_share rise toward 20–30% and a higher buyer activity share during the timed windows versus baseline promo days. (Impact: early_window_share; incremental margin; throughput)
• Run two store-as-studio weekend activations with partner-funded media to lift foot traffic and QR redemptions (Store Ops + Partnerships · Nov 24 Dec 08, 2025): Convert stores into short-run media studios with partner-paid amplification to drive measurable foot traffic without deeper price cuts. Experience-driven activations attract bargain hunters who trade time for value and fund reach with partner media, reducing promo reliance ¹⁷. Expect foot_traffic_uplift in the 10–15% base range and QR_redemption at or above the 5% floor; track per-visitor yield to check margin retention. (Impact: foot_traffic_uplift; qr_redemption; paired_metric (buyer activity vs promo intensity))
• Run a one-day dynamic flash price test using real-time competitor-price checks to hold CPA under 0.80× baseline (E-comm · Nov 24 Dec 08, 2025 (one-day test within window)): Deploy real-time competitor-price checks and a one-day flash-pricing experiment on a single event day to capture price-sensitive demand while protecting full-period margins. AI-driven dynamic pricing has driven record online event spend and lets you target conversion windows instead of broadly lowering prices ³². Success looks like event_cpa falling to ≤0.8× baseline and stable revenue per visitor outside the flash window. (Impact: event_cpa; incremental margin; e-commerce throughput)
• Test two Gen Z-focused pop-ups to improve under-30 conversion and lower promo CPA (Marketing · Nov 24 Dec 08, 2025): Run short, highly targeted pop-ups with collaborators that offer QR-driven value and social-first experiences to lift conversion among under-30s without broad discounts. Gen Z responds to timed experiences and curated value, which trades margin for higher lifetime value and lower acquisition CPA than blanket sales ¹⁶⁷. Measure QR_redemption ≥5% of footfall and a +3 percentage-point lift in under-30 conversion; track CPA versus standard promo channels. (Impact: loyalty & acquisition; conversion among under-30s; event_cpa)

Activation Kit

One-day dynamic price mini-burst

Pillar: E-commerce · Persona: Head of E-commerce · Time horizon: immediate Why now: Holiday bargain windows are compressing demand; a one-day flash can capture urgent buyers without committing to long discount periods. Thresholds: Run as a narrow mini-burst: event CPA must fall to ≤0.8× baseline and margin impact capped to about -100 bps per order. Fit: Best for Sites with live price feeds, flexible promo calendars and inventory visibility; Not for Operations without real-time pricing or granular SKU-level inventory. Proof: Run a real-time competitor-price check and a one-day dynamic flash price test in the Nov 24–Dec 08 window to target a reduction in event CPA to ≤0.80× baseline. Placement options: Site-wide flash banner + dedicated landing page, Homepage hero with timed price drop, Selected category listing and paid search bid spike Target map: - Head of E-commerce (E-commerce): Execute the price drop and own CPA outcome - Pricing lead (Finance / Pricing): Approve margin guardrails and SKU whitelist - Paid media lead (Marketing): Boost bids and traffic during the one-day window Cadence: - Day 0: Launch plan and guardrails — Confirm SKU whitelist, margin caps, landing page, and measurement plan in one call. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 3: Pre-launch verification — Validate live feed, promo codes, tracking tags and inventory holds on a dry run. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 7: Post-burst readout — Deliver CPA, margin delta and new-customer share versus baseline within 48 hours of the test. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of E-commerce x Pricing lead / Brand pricing manager | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: Yes | Ops drag: low

Two short pop-ups targeting under-30s

Pillar: Marketing & Partnerships · Persona: Head of Marketing · Time horizon: pilot Why now: Holiday youth shopping is event-driven; short cultural pop-ups capture Gen Z urgency without wholesale discounting. Thresholds: Aim for QR redemption ≥5% of footfall and a conversion lift of +3 percentage points among under-30s; keep activations to two short windows to limit margin erosion. Fit: Best for Brands chasing youth reach with QR-driven capture and short windows; Not for Stores unable to allocate staff or footspace for temporary events. Proof: Run two collaborator pop-ups in the Nov 24–Dec 08 window with QR-driven offers and target QR redemptions ≥5% of footfall and conversion lift among under-30s by +3 percentage points. Placement options: High-footfall mall concourse temporary shop, Store-within-store corner in flagship, Campus or local festival activation Target map: - Head of Marketing (Marketing): Drive youth reach and own creative brief - Partnerships lead (Partnerships): Secure partner and media co-investment - Regional store ops (Store Operations): Allocate space, staff and enforce ROI guardrails Cadence: - Day 0: Partner kickoff and brief — Agree goals, media commitments, QR creative and sales SKUs in a 45-minute kickoff. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 3: Logistics and staffing check — Confirm space, install plan, staff schedule and POS bundles ahead of the first pop-up. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 7: Measurement plan and go/no-go — Agree the post-event metrics, reporting cadence and stop criteria if thresholds miss. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of Marketing x Local brand or influencer partner | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: No | Ops drag: medium

Two weekend in-store studio activations with partner media

Pillar: Store & Hospitality Activation · Persona: Head of Store Operations / Partnerships · Time horizon: 6-week Why now: Behavioral signals show weekend studio activations can raise per-visitor yield when paired with partner-funded media during the holiday event window. Thresholds: Target QR redemption ≥5% of visitors and foot-traffic uplift of 10–15% versus baseline weekend; measure per-visitor yield to avoid discount-driven margin loss. Fit: Best for Flagship stores with flexible layout and partner media co-investment; Not for Small-format locations without staging or inconsistent weekend traffic. Proof: Run two store-as-studio weekend activations Nov 24–Dec 08 with partner-funded media and measure QR redemption share ≥5% and foot traffic uplift of 10–15%. Placement options: Flagship store event space staged as studio, Dedicated weekend pop-up within high-traffic store, Outdoor plaza adjacent to store with QR capture Target map: - Head of Store Ops (Store Operations): Execute logistics and enforce footfall measurement - Partnerships lead (Partnerships): Lock media buy and creative deliverables - Retail marketing manager (Marketing): Coordinate creative and local paid support Cadence: - Day 0: Run dates and media buy align — Confirm exact weekend dates, media flighting and partner creative specs. (CTA: Send 1-page runbook to merchandising, store ops, and finance) - Day 3: Logistics and staff rehearsal — Perform on-site setup, AV check and staff rehearsal for activation flow. (CTA: Book 30-minute readout with finance and ops to review guardrails) - Day 7: Pre-event measurement agreement — Confirm baseline windows, tracking tags and reporting cadence for footfall and QR redemption. (CTA: Deliver scale/kill decision memo to executive sponsor) Ops tags: owner Head of Store Operations x Media partner or brand partner | Collab type brand↔operator | Zero new SKUs: Yes | Ops drag: high

The Brand Collab Lab turns these plays into named concepts, deck spines, and outreach ready for partner teams.

Risk Radar

• Promos concentrate planned purchases into promo windows (Severity 3, Likelihood 3) Trigger: Broad or deep discounts on core SKUs during event windows Detection: Compare SKU-level sell-through week-before vs event-day; track new vs repeat buyer mix and average ticket on promo vs adjacent non-promo days Mitigation: Limit discounts to a narrow SKU set and shallow depth caps; hold a matched-control set of SKUs at full price to measure net new demand; report acquisition value by cohort after each event
• Deeper markdowns raise volume but collapse contribution margin fast (Severity 3, Likelihood 3) Trigger: Escalating markdown depth across large parts of assortment Detection: Monitor gross margin per-transaction, margin contribution per buyer, and margin per-visitor on discount days vs baseline; flag when margin delta exceeds tolerance Mitigation: Enforce per-SKU minimum margin floors and cap markdown depth (require finance sign-off for discounts deeper than 30%); run incremental tests with control groups and limit deep discounts to clearance pools
• Visible real-time price moves invite rapid competitor matching and margin erosion (Severity 2, Likelihood 2) Trigger: Public dynamic pricing or visible flash price drops without isolation Detection: Instrument competitor match rate and price-delta distribution; monitor short-term churn and margin delta for price-sensitive segments Mitigation: Isolate dynamic-price tests to a small SKU set or geo; run short (24-hour) flash tests with a control cohort; cap automated price responses to competitor moves (eg limit to 10% of baseline delta)
• Partner activations drive footfall but not durable purchase or repeat behavior (Severity 2, Likelihood 2) Trigger: Collaborator pop-ups or store activations that attract target demos without conversion hooks or aligned offers Detection: Track QR-redemption rate, per-visitor yield, new-customer share, and post-event repeat rate; use QR ≥5% as an early threshold Mitigation: Run two proof pop-ups with prequalified partners and partner-funded media; require QR redemption KPI ≥5% and per-visitor yield thresholds before scaling; gate future activations on repeat-rate lift

Future Outlook

• 6-month Collab events buy traffic without shredding margin: If true, we will see QR redemptions hit ≥5% of footfall and under-30 conversion lift within 6 months (confidence 0.75) You wake up to a December where traffic spikes come from partner pop-ups and store-as-studio activations rather than site-wide markdowns. Collaborations and partner-funded media concentrate high-intent visits into event windows and subsidize reach so you convert without broad price cuts. If you run the collab-led play you will celebrate protected margin and clearer new-customer crediting; if you default to blanket discounts you will regret higher cannibalization and compressed contribution ¹. Watch QR redemptions as % of footfall on event days (target ≥5%) for ≥5% QR share, +3pp conversion lift among under-30s, limited SKU-level sell-through cannibalization
• 12-month Scaling store-as-studio shifts the baseline away from discounting: If true, we will see acquisition economics improve and promo frequency drop within 12 months (confidence 0.60) You wake up to a year where repeatable in-store events and partner media set shopper expectations and reduce reliance on blanket markdowns. Repeated collabs create distinct acquisition cohorts that deliver higher early LTV than discount-acquired buyers because partners fund reach and the experience drives full-price behavior. If you scale store-as-studio and credit partnerships correctly you will celebrate a lower effective promo rate and stronger 6-month LTV; if you fail to change the model you will regret a higher baseline of promotional demand and thinner margins ². Watch 6-month cohort LTV: collab-event acquisitions versus discount-day acquisitions for Lower CPA for targeted cohorts, higher 6-month LTV, steady peak conversion without deeper markdowns, and partner-funded media covering a meaningful share of reach

Sources

Appendix Signals

• Luxury Revival Narrative: held for later window (strength 0.00)
• Macro Activity Mixed Signals: held for later window (strength 0.00)
• Discounts Drive Foot Traffic, Not Always Profit: held for later window (strength 0.90) ²⁸⁹
• Front-Loaded, Early-Window Buying: held for later window (strength 0.88) ³¹⁹
• Value Channels Gaining Share: held for later window (strength 0.85) ²⁵