Diesel at $10/Gallon in California: Silverado 1500 Duramax vs Silverado EV — Per-Mile Fuel Cost and the 5-Year Break-Even at 31¢/kWh
Last week a bunch of California diesel stations showed up on social media with prices pinned at 9.99, the highest number the pumps can display. According to Electrek's report on diesel hitting $10 a gallon, the photos this week look different. They show stations that are out of diesel entirely. Electrek's own headline calls the shortage part a rumor, so treat it as unconfirmed.
If you drive a diesel pickup, you're probably asking whether you should have bought the electric one. Here's my answer as the friend who owns both an EV and a gas truck: a price spike is not a 5-year forecast, but it does tell you where your break-even point sits. So I'm not going to argue about whether diesel stays at $10. I'm going to calculate the diesel price at which an electric truck wins for a driver in California, and let you decide how likely that price is.
The Comparison: Silverado 1500 Duramax vs Silverado EV in California
Everything below is a worked example, not a quote for your truck. I'm modeling a driver who does 12,000 miles a year in California, keeps the truck 5 years, and doesn't tow heavy every week.
Example assumptions (swap in your own):
- Diesel truck: Silverado 1500 Duramax at 21 mpg real-world (less than the sticker number, because real driving is worse than the test cycle)
- Electric truck: Silverado EV at 0.55 kWh per mile measured at the wall, including charging losses
- Home electricity: 31¢/kWh standard rate, or 25¢/kWh on an EV time-of-use plan
- DC fast charging: 52¢/kWh
- Charging mix: 80% home, 20% DC fast (road trips and days you can't plug in)
- Purchase premium: the EV costs $15,000 more than the equivalent Duramax after dealer discounts
- Federal credit: none. It's repealed, and our federal credit repeal breakdown shows how that changes the math. Any California state or utility incentive you qualify for would be on top of this.
Step 1: Per-Mile Fuel Cost
Diesel truck: 12,000 miles ÷ 21 mpg = 571 gallons a year.
| Diesel price | Per-mile cost | Annual fuel cost |
|---|---|---|
| $5.50/gal | 26.2¢ | $3,143 |
| $7.50/gal | 35.7¢ | $4,286 |
| $10.00/gal | 47.6¢ | $5,714 |
Silverado EV: 0.55 kWh per mile × the rate you pay.
| Charging setup | Per-mile cost | Annual fuel cost |
|---|---|---|
| Home, TOU at 25¢ | 13.8¢ | $1,650 |
| Home, standard at 31¢ | 17.1¢ | $2,046 |
| DC fast only at 52¢ | 28.6¢ | $3,432 |
| 80% home (31¢) / 20% DC fast (52¢) | 19.4¢ | $2,323 |
Look at the DC-fast-only row. If you can't charge at home, the EV's fuel advantage disappears at lower diesel prices. At $5.50 diesel, a truck that lives on 52¢ fast chargers costs $3,432 a year against $3,143 for the diesel. The EV loses on fuel by about $289 a year.
I'm not saying that to knock EVs. Charging costs vary several-fold depending on where you plug in. If you rent and rely on public charging, read our no-home-charging math for the Chevy Equinox EV before you trust any "EVs are cheaper to fuel" headline.
For a sense of how much a home-versus-fast-charging split moves the answer in California specifically, our California Model Y charging breakdown works through the same rate structure.
Step 2: Five-Year Fuel Savings at the 80/20 Charging Mix
Now subtract. The EV's annual fuel bill is $2,323. Diesel's is in the table above.
| Diesel price | Annual fuel savings | 5-year fuel savings |
|---|---|---|
| $5.50 | $820 | $4,100 |
| $7.50 | $1,963 | $9,815 |
| $10.00 | $3,391 | $16,955 |
The savings roughly quadruple between $5.50 and $10 diesel. That's the whole story of this post. Fuel price drives the EV-versus-diesel decision far more than any spec-sheet detail.
This is the kind of per-mile comparison Celvari runs for you, using your electricity rate and your local fuel price, so you don't have to build the spreadsheet yourself.
Step 3: What the Fuel Savings Have to Beat
The EV costs $15,000 more upfront in my example. It also holds some of that premium at resale, so I'll assume you get $6,000 of it back after 5 years. That leaves a net capital cost gap of $9,000. Your resale number could be very different. EV resale values have been volatile, and our Honda Prologue resale-risk analysis covers why I wouldn't lean on a rosy figure.
Three smaller items are worth including:
- Maintenance: I'm assuming the EV saves about $350 a year (no oil changes, no DEF fluid, no fuel filters, gentler brake wear). That's my assumption, not a measured number.
- Insurance: I'm assuming the EV costs about $300 a year more. Again, get real quotes for your zip code.
- Battery degradation: I'm using a 2% per year capacity loss as a placeholder. Swap in Geotab's or Recurrent's published real-world figures for the specific model you're considering. Manufacturer range claims won't tell you this.
Net maintenance and insurance is about +$50 a year in the EV's favor, or $250 over 5 years.
Degradation doesn't raise the cost per mile, because a smaller battery still gets the same miles per kWh. What it does is push more of your driving onto DC fast chargers as your usable range shrinks. If the DC fast share drifts from 20% to 30% by year 5, that costs roughly $139 extra in year 5, or about $350 over the ownership period on a ramp. That's small next to the price premium. The bigger battery risk is resale value and range anxiety, not fuel cost. For the full picture, see our Honda Prologue and Kia EV3 battery-degradation breakdown.
Step 4: The 5-Year Bottom Line
EV advantage = fuel savings + $250 maintenance/insurance − $350 degradation drift − $9,000 capital gap
| Diesel price | 5-year EV advantage |
|---|---|
| $5.50/gal | −$5,000 (diesel wins) |
| $7.50/gal | +$715 (EV barely wins) |
| $10.00/gal | +$7,855 (EV wins clearly) |
The break-even diesel price in this example is about $7.25 a gallon. Below that, the Duramax is cheaper over 5 years. Above it, the electric truck is.
How Your Charging Setup Moves the Break-Even
The $7.25 figure assumes the 80/20 mix. Here's how it shifts with your habits:
| Charging setup | Break-even diesel price |
|---|---|
| Home only on a 25¢ TOU plan | ~$6.07/gal |
| 80% home / 20% DC fast (base case) | ~$7.25/gal |
| DC fast only at 52¢/kWh | ~$9.19/gal |
If you have a garage, a TOU rate, and a routine, the break-even sits about $3 a gallon below where the DC-fast-only driver's does. If you're at $10 diesel and you live on public fast chargers, the EV's margin is thin.
Why I Wouldn't Bet Your Truck Purchase on $10 Diesel
I wouldn't buy an EV because of one week of $9.99 pump photos, and I wouldn't dismiss it either.
- The spike may not last. A price pinned at the pump's maximum display and stations reportedly running dry describe a supply squeeze. Squeezes come and go. Nobody, including me, can tell you whether $10 diesel is a two-week event or a new normal, so model a range of prices.
- Fuel availability is a separate risk from fuel price. If your workday depends on finding diesel, a shortage costs you more than the price does. That's a legitimate factor, and it's one a per-mile calculation doesn't capture. Just don't confuse "diesel might run out" with "EVs always come out cheaper."
- The break-even is what matters. At what diesel price does your combination of miles, charging setup, and truck pricing flip? If you believe diesel will average above that price over 5 years, the electric truck earns its premium. If not, it doesn't.
If you want to see this same analysis on other trucks, our Silverado EV vs gas Silverado 1500 fuel-cost comparison covers the gasoline version, and our RAM 3500 diesel vs Silverado EV per-mile math covers heavy-duty diesel.
What About the Other Headlines This Week?
This week's EV news had two more items that look like they belong in a cost conversation, and they don't.
- Tesla's Roadster reservations. Per Electrek, Tesla has reopened Roadster reservations at a $50,000 deposit about two weeks before the October 1 unveil near Waco, Texas. That's the second time it has collected $50,000 for the car. A deposit on an unreleased halo car tells you nothing about the cost of an EV you can buy this year, so it doesn't belong in your ownership math.
- Cadillac's Lyriq-V in Australia. Electrek reports that the 2027 Lyriq-V is reaching Australian dealers. That's a performance SUV in a market you're probably not shopping in.
I also skipped the ag-drone and documentary stories in this week's pile, since neither affects what you pay per mile.
Run the Numbers for Your Driving, Not Mine
My example uses 12,000 miles, 21 mpg, 31¢/kWh, and a $15,000 premium. Yours will differ, and each of those inputs moves the break-even:
- Annual miles. At 20,000 miles a year, the fuel savings scale up by about two-thirds and the break-even diesel price falls. At 6,000, the EV rarely pays back.
- Real-world mpg. A diesel that gets 17 mpg with a trailer costs more per mile than my 21 mpg example. Use your own numbers, including towing.
- Your electricity rate. Many California utilities offer EV-specific plans. Your rate could be well below or above 31¢. Get the actual tariff.
- Your charging mix. How much of your driving can happen at home? That one input swings the break-even by about $3 a gallon.
- The price premium you'd actually pay. Dealer discounts on EVs vary widely. Use a real quote.
- Incentives. Check California and utility programs and their eligibility rules before you assume any number. Our incentive stacking guide explains how to read the requirements.
You can model all of this for your specific truck, zip code, and driving pattern at Celvari. Enter your miles, your electricity rate, your local diesel or gas price, and the incentives you qualify for, and it shows your break-even instead of mine.
The takeaway: at $10 diesel, an electric truck is the clear winner in this example. At $5.50, the diesel wins by $5,000 over five years. Your answer sits somewhere between those two, and it depends on where you charge. Find that number before you buy, whichever truck you end up in.
Sources
- Tesla reopens $50,000 Roadster reservations ahead of October 1 unveil — Electrek
- Cadillac’s go-fast electric SUV arrives makes its way Down Under — Electrek
- As diesel hits $10/gal., rumors swirl that stations are running out — Electrek
- China Is Doing About 30 Times More Agricultural Drone Work Than The U.S. — CleanTechnica
- Streisand Effect Goes to Work on New Elon Musk Documentary — CleanTechnica