Property risk score - Maury County, TN vs Shelby County, TN vs Sumner County, TN: 30-year risk costs on a $500,000.00 home at 3.5% discount rate
Sumner County, TN has the lowest modeled 30-year risk cost NPV: $17,676.55. The margin to the next option is $2,919.96. Maury County, TN: $20,966.26; Shelby County, TN: $20,596.51; Sumner County, TN: $17,676.55. This is a county model comparison, not a property-specific loss forecast.
What do the counties share, and how do they rank?
Each county uses $500,000.00 property value, 30 ownership years and 3.5% discount rate. The API echoes those inputs in every option. ZIP mappings: 38401 selects Maury County, TN (FIPS 47119); 38002 selects Shelby County, TN (FIPS 47157); 37066 selects Sumner County, TN (FIPS 47165). Compare the modeled risk costs to see which county carries the least, lowest first: Sumner County, TN $17,676.55; Shelby County, TN $20,596.51; Maury County, TN $20,966.26. The calculation table retains the annual risk-cost estimate and discounted total for each alternative, with the decision row and margin.
What is each county's modeled risk cost per year?
The annual figure is the modeled annual risk cost the API returns for each county. Compare the annual costs to see what the modeled risk cost of each county amounts to in a year.
- Maury County, TN: $1,139.96 a year
- Shelby County, TN: $1,119.86 a year
- Sumner County, TN: $961.10 a year
What can the comparison tell you?
Dollar figures are RiskBeforeBuy modeled risk costs, not FEMA property valuations, insurance quotes, guaranteed losses or a recommendation to buy. The ranking compares the NPV model only; separate risk-intelligence grades and monthly estimates use a different model and are not mixed into it. The API names FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 and its supporting sources and gives the date each source's rows were fetched (2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01); fetch dates are not the vendors' publication dates. For the NRI it reads "NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z". For each county the API also gives a scenario-based sensitivity range (2,000 runs varying the inputs) for the composite score and the monthly cost; that range is not a statistical interval and does not cover the NPV ranked here. No calculation sample size is supplied. A numerical difference does not establish statistical significance. The API says of the FBI crime rates: A state rate, applied to every county of the state; not a county measurement. A lower modeled risk cost does not establish a safer parcel or a better purchase.
Calculation provenance
Maury County, TN: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report; Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Shelby County, TN: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report; Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Sumner County, TN: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report; Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Request timestamps and response hashes are shown separately in the calculation record. More property risk comparisons and RiskBeforeBuy provide the next steps. Inspect the native comparison API.
Change the scenario
Each calculator link carries the ZIP. The deployed lookup reads the ZIP automatically. Set property value to $500,000.00, years to 30, and the field labeled Mortgage Rate to 3.5%; that field supplies the calculator's discount rate. Full NPV controls and results need a paid account or your own product key.
Open ZIP 38401 in Maury County, TN
Open ZIP 38002 in Shelby County, TN
Open ZIP 37066 in Sumner County, TN
More from Smart Tech Invest
Calculation data
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| property_value | 500000 |
| years | 30 |
| discount_rate | 0.035 |
| Measure | Maury County, TN | Shelby County, TN | Sumner County, TN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modeled annual risk cost (USD) | 1,139.96 | 1,119.86 | 961.10 |
| Modeled 30-year risk cost NPV (USD) | 20,966.26 | 20,596.51 | 17,676.55 |
| Distance from winning value (USD) | 3,289.71 | 2,919.96 | 0.00 |
| Decision | Alternative value | Alternative value | Winning value |
Winner: Sumner County, TN. Objective: minimize. Margin to next option: 2,919.96 USD. Assumption: Compare only modeled county risk-cost NPV at identical property value, ownership horizon and discount rate; lower modeled cost does not establish a safer parcel or a better purchase.
- winner
- county-47165
- objective
- minimize
- metric
- riskNpv
Source and assumptions
- One authenticated native comparison response supplies every column. Each option is matched by its submitted ZIP and returned county FIPS, never by response order.
- ZIPs select county-level records; these are not parcel or ZIP-level loss predictions. Only location changes; property value, ownership years and discount rate are identical and echoed by the API.
- Dollar figures are RiskBeforeBuy modeled risk costs, not FEMA property valuations, insurance quotes, guaranteed losses or a recommendation to buy. The ranking compares the NPV model only; separate risk-intelligence grades and monthly estimates use a different model and are not mixed into it.
- The API names FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 and its supporting sources and gives the date each source's rows were fetched (2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01); fetch dates are not the vendors' publication dates. For the NRI it reads "NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z".
- For each county the API also gives a scenario-based sensitivity range (2,000 runs varying the inputs) for the composite score and the monthly cost; that range is not a statistical interval and does not cover the NPV ranked here. No calculation sample size is supplied. A numerical difference does not establish statistical significance.
- The API says of the FBI crime rates: A state rate, applied to every county of the state; not a county measurement.
Maury County, TN. Data layer: RiskBeforeBuy county risk-cost NPV model. Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report. Vintage: Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-11-04T10:00:25.709Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
ea1b329a3ad9f5a0a01bbd6eb0c6afa34171fe932492cd0f490e324ae72e8168Shelby County, TN. Data layer: RiskBeforeBuy county risk-cost NPV model. Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report. Vintage: Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-11-04T10:00:25.709Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
ea1b329a3ad9f5a0a01bbd6eb0c6afa34171fe932492cd0f490e324ae72e8168Sumner County, TN. Data layer: RiskBeforeBuy county risk-cost NPV model. Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20; FEMA NFIP Claims Database; FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer; NOAA Storm Events Database; FBI Uniform Crime Report. Vintage: Source rows fetched 2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01; NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-11-04T10:00:25.709Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
ea1b329a3ad9f5a0a01bbd6eb0c6afa34171fe932492cd0f490e324ae72e8168Questions about this comparison
Which county has the lowest modeled risk cost?
Sumner County, TN has the lowest modeled 30-year risk cost NPV: $17,676.55. The margin to the next option is $2,919.96. Maury County, TN: $20,966.26; Shelby County, TN: $20,596.51; Sumner County, TN: $17,676.55. This is a county model comparison, not a property-specific loss forecast.
Do the locations use identical inputs?
Each county uses $500,000.00 property value, 30 ownership years and 3.5% discount rate. The API echoes those inputs in every option. ZIP mappings: 38401 selects Maury County, TN (FIPS 47119); 38002 selects Shelby County, TN (FIPS 47157); 37066 selects Sumner County, TN (FIPS 47165).
What supports the estimates, and what is unknown?
Dollar figures are RiskBeforeBuy modeled risk costs, not FEMA property valuations, insurance quotes, guaranteed losses or a recommendation to buy. The ranking compares the NPV model only; separate risk-intelligence grades and monthly estimates use a different model and are not mixed into it. The API names FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 and its supporting sources and gives the date each source's rows were fetched (2026-03-29 to 2026-11-01); fetch dates are not the vendors' publication dates. For the NRI it reads "NRI census-tract service v1.20, vendor data last edited 2025-12-16T07:40:18.438Z". For each county the API also gives a scenario-based sensitivity range (2,000 runs varying the inputs) for the composite score and the monthly cost; that range is not a statistical interval and does not cover the NPV ranked here. No calculation sample size is supplied. A numerical difference does not establish statistical significance. The API says of the FBI crime rates: A state rate, applied to every county of the state; not a county measurement.
Can I change these inputs in the calculator?
Each calculator link carries the ZIP. The deployed lookup reads the ZIP automatically. Set property value to $500,000.00, years to 30, and the field labeled Mortgage Rate to 3.5%; that field supplies the calculator's discount rate. Full NPV controls and results need a paid account or your own product key.