Appeal vs Do nothing: expected net present value of a property tax appeal in Orange County, CA ($1,078,625 assessed, $862,900 market value)
Appeal beats Do nothing in Orange County, CA: its expected net present value is $173.98 against $0.00 for Do nothing, a margin of $173.98, for a $1,078,625 assessment on a $862,900 single-family home. If the appeal succeeds it is worth $1,034.96 in present value after a $400.00 filing cost; at a 40% success probability the expected net present value is $173.98.
What is compared
Appeal and Do nothing are scored on the same property inputs from one live Tavirex response. The score is expected net present value in dollars, measured against Do nothing at $0.00. Appeal leads on expected net present value: Appeal $173.98, Do nothing $0.00. The Tavirex recommendation for this property is Appeal, which agrees with the ranking in dollars.
The property used
This is a scenario, not a listing: the Orange County, CA median home value of $862,900 and median household income of $109,361 from the Tavirex county table, a 6.7 mill rate converted from the county effective tax rate, and a $1,078,625 assessment. Tavirex applied these exemptions: none.
Defaults behind the numbers
Tavirex reference defaults applied: 40% appeal success probability, $400.00 filing cost, 4.25% discount rate, 3.5% tax inflation and a 1 year horizon, which is the state reassessment cycle. These are reference-table values, not estimates for any one property.
Check your own assessment
Open the Tavirex calculator. The link carries this scenario and its attribution, but the deployed form does not apply those parameters automatically. Enter your own assessed value and market value there. More Tavirex comparisons.
Calculation provenance
Both columns come from one live Tavirex full-analysis response for the same property inputs. Net present value is measured against doing nothing, so Do nothing is the zero baseline by definition. The appeal success probability, filing cost, discount rate, tax inflation rate and horizon are Tavirex reference-table defaults named in the calculation record, not estimates for this property. The horizon is the state reassessment cycle. Sample size UNAVAILABLE. Read how Tavirex makes these numbers. Response hashes and retrieval times are retained separately in the calculation record.
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Calculation data
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| state | CA |
| county | Orange County |
| county_fips | 06059 |
| property_type | single_family |
| market_value | 862900 |
| assessed_value | 1078625 |
| mill_rate | 6.7 |
| exemptions | none |
| household_income | 109361 |
| Measure | Appeal | Do nothing |
|---|---|---|
| Current annual property tax (USD) | 7,226.79 | 7,226.79 |
| Annual tax savings if it works (USD) | 1,445.36 | 0.00 |
| Filing cost (USD) | 400.00 | 0.00 |
| Net present value if it works (USD) | 1,034.96 | 0.00 |
| Expected net present value (USD) | 173.98 | 0.00 |
| Distance from winning value (USD) | 0.00 | 173.98 |
| Decision | Winning value | Alternative value |
Winner: Appeal. Objective: maximize. Margin to next option: 173.98 USD. Assumption: Highest expected net present value only, with Do nothing as the zero baseline. The Tavirex recommendation is reported separately and does not decide the winner.
- winner
- appeal
- objective
- maximize
- metric
- expectedNpv
- api Recommendation
- appeal
Source and assumptions
- Both columns come from one live Tavirex full-analysis response for the same property inputs. Net present value is measured against doing nothing, so Do nothing is the zero baseline by definition.
- The ranking objective is the highest expected net present value: the present value of the tax savings if the appeal succeeds, weighted by the appeal success probability, less the filing cost. It does not predict the outcome of any single appeal.
- The appeal success probability, filing cost, discount rate, tax inflation rate and horizon are Tavirex reference-table defaults named in the calculation record, not estimates for this property. The horizon is the state reassessment cycle.
- The property inputs are a scenario, not a listing: the county median home value and median household income from the Tavirex county table, the county effective tax rate converted to a mill rate for the state assessment ratio, and an assessment above the state target. They describe no individual property.
- Do nothing assumes the assessment stands. No other path (an informal review, an attorney, an exemption change) is compared. Filing rules and deadlines vary by jurisdiction; confirm them with the local assessor. This is not tax or legal advice.
Appeal. Data layer: Tavirex reference tables (assessment ratios, reassessment cycles, exemptions, appeal defaults, configuration defaults). Source: Tavirex full-analysis API; each parameter names its reference-table row in the response. Vintage: Oldest reference table fetched 2026-10-18. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-24T18:30:10.110Z
Source updated: Oldest reference table fetched 2026-10-18T07:45:05.459Z
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
b8e1bb6f7eaa6aa373173ea96db72cbbb99d3b8ea73a88280a6022613d244db4Do nothing. Data layer: Tavirex reference tables (assessment ratios, reassessment cycles, exemptions, appeal defaults, configuration defaults). Source: Tavirex full-analysis API; each parameter names its reference-table row in the response. Vintage: Oldest reference table fetched 2026-10-18. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-24T18:30:10.110Z
Source updated: Oldest reference table fetched 2026-10-18T07:45:05.459Z
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
b8e1bb6f7eaa6aa373173ea96db72cbbb99d3b8ea73a88280a6022613d244db4Questions about this comparison
Should I choose Appeal or Do nothing on this Orange County, CA assessment, by expected net present value?
Appeal beats Do nothing in Orange County, CA: its expected net present value is $173.98 against $0.00 for Do nothing, a margin of $173.98, for a $1,078,625 assessment on a $862,900 single-family home. If the appeal succeeds it is worth $1,034.96 in present value after a $400.00 filing cost; at a 40% success probability the expected net present value is $173.98.
What does Appeal cost, and what does it save if it works, compared with Do nothing?
Appeal leads on expected net present value, in dollars. Appeal costs $400.00 to file and saves $1,445.36 a year if it works, worth $1,034.96 in net present value over 1 year; Do nothing costs $0.00 and saves $0.00. The current annual property tax is $7,226.79.
Does the Tavirex appeal recommendation match the expected net present value ranking?
Appeal leads on expected net present value: Appeal $173.98, Do nothing $0.00. The Tavirex recommendation for this property is Appeal, which agrees with the ranking in dollars.
What inputs and data sit behind this Appeal vs Do nothing comparison?
Appeal and Do nothing come from one live Tavirex response for a $862,900 single-family home in Orange County, CA with a $1,078,625 assessment, 6.7 mills and a $109,361 household income, ranked by expected net present value in dollars (Appeal wins). Defaults: 40% success probability, $400.00 filing cost, 4.25% discount rate, 3.5% tax inflation, 1 year horizon.