Los Angeles County, CA vs Orange County, CA vs Riverside County, CA: 10-year wildfire hardening comparison at $500,000.00 replacement value
WildFireCost Team
Wildfire Risk Analyst
Orange County, CA has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$15,403.50. The margin to the next option is $12,043.50. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
The same home scenario in each county
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response. The table shows the exact returned figures, including each alternative, the winning value and the margin. A higher modeled NPV does not mean a county is safer. Higher modeled avoided losses can reflect greater modeled fire exposure.
Read the estimates within their limits
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The native compare route uses its own regional assumptions. County reports can return different totals; these are compare-route estimates and must not be mixed with county-route estimates. The API supplies no calculation sample size or statistical uncertainty for the package NPV. Source collection dates for cost and insurance assumptions are unavailable; retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
The displayed numbers are the native comparison API's outputs. The article does not derive annual probability from a percentile or replace unavailable values with zero. The source gives no package uncertainty interval, so a numerical winner is not evidence of a statistically meaningful difference.
Open a county in the calculator
Open Los Angeles County, CA with these inputs
Open Orange County, CA with these inputs
Open Riverside County, CA with these inputs
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The deployed calculator opens one county at a time and currently uses its numeric defaults rather than reading numeric URL parameters. Those defaults match this comparison. Its county route can use different regional assumptions, so it is not a reproduction of the native compare estimate.
More wildfire comparisons and WildFireCost provide the next steps. Inspect the native comparison response; full economics may require your own product key.
Calculation provenance
Los Angeles County, CA: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Orange County, CA: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Riverside County, CA: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Retrieval times and response hashes are shown separately from source vintage.
Calculation data
Orange County, CA has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$15,403.50. The margin to the next option is $12,043.50. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| home_sqft | 2000 |
| current_premium | 2500 |
| replacement_value | 500000 |
| ownership_horizon | 10 |
| Measure | Los Angeles County, CA | Orange County, CA | Riverside County, CA |
|---|---|---|---|
| National risk-to-structures percentile (percentile) | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| County annual burn probability (fraction) | 0.010482155 | 0.017145216 | 0.014419838 |
| Hardening package cost (USD) | 95219 | 95219 | 95219 |
| Modeled annual total savings (USD) | 4352.89 | 6897.330000000001 | 5856.58 |
| Modeled package NPV (USD) | -44847.61 | -15403.5 | -27447 |
| Simple package payback (years) | 21.9 | 13.8 | 16.3 |
| Discount rate (fraction) | 0.0425 | 0.0425 | 0.0425 |
| Insurance inflation assumption (fraction) | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Regional cost multiplier (ratio) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Distance from winning value (USD) | 29444.11 | 0 | 12043.5 |
| Decision | Alternative value | Winning value | Alternative value |
Winner: Orange County, CA. Objective: maximize. Margin to next option: 12043.5 USD. Assumption: Compare the same modeled hardening package by highest NPV; negative NPV means modeled benefits do not recover its cost over the selected horizon.
- winner
- county-06059
- objective
- maximize
- metric
- total_npv
Source and assumptions
- One authenticated native GET comparison supplies every column. Each option receipt identifies its county within that same response; the response does not echo FIPS codes.
- All options use the same submitted home size, insurance premium, replacement value and ownership horizon. The API does not echo every input; input identity is the request, not a second observation.
- Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability.
- Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings.
- The native compare route uses its own regional assumptions. County reports can return different totals; these are compare-route estimates and must not be mixed with county-route estimates.
- The API supplies no calculation sample size or statistical uncertainty for the package NPV. Source collection dates for cost and insurance assumptions are unavailable; retrieval time is not source vintage.
Los Angeles County, CA. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-04T08:45:04.419Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
b2ce790a1ded70747bebf84da4d6b853cd47c2d137ead7e9629ffadae16eae3aOrange County, CA. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-04T08:45:04.419Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
b2ce790a1ded70747bebf84da4d6b853cd47c2d137ead7e9629ffadae16eae3aRiverside County, CA. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; cost/insurance vintage unavailable. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-04T08:45:04.419Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
b2ce790a1ded70747bebf84da4d6b853cd47c2d137ead7e9629ffadae16eae3aQuestions about this comparison
Which county has the strongest modeled result?
Orange County, CA has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$15,403.50. The margin to the next option is $12,043.50. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
Are the inputs identical across counties?
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response.
What do the numbers mean, and what is unavailable?
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The native compare route uses its own regional assumptions. County reports can return different totals; these are compare-route estimates and must not be mixed with county-route estimates. The API supplies no calculation sample size or statistical uncertainty for the package NPV. Source collection dates for cost and insurance assumptions are unavailable; retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
How can I change these inputs?
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The deployed calculator opens one county at a time and currently uses its numeric defaults rather than reading numeric URL parameters. Those defaults match this comparison. Its county route can use different regional assumptions, so it is not a reproduction of the native compare estimate.