Wildfire home hardening - Ellis County, OK vs Pittsburg County, OK vs Roger Mills County, OK: 10-year wildfire hardening comparison at $500,000.00 replacement value
Ellis County, OK has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$42,173.88. The margin to the next option is $2,857.74. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
What do the counties share, and how do they rank?
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response. The table shows the returned figures, including each alternative, the winning value and the margin. Compare the modeled results, highest first: Ellis County, OK -$42,173.88; Roger Mills County, OK -$45,031.62; Pittsburg County, OK -$46,323.34. A higher modeled NPV does not mean a county is safer.
How exposed is each county to wildfire?
The risk percentile is a national rank of risk to structures, and the burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land. Compare them to see how each county ranks on wildfire risk to structures and on burn probability.
- Ellis County, OK: risk percentile 98, burn probability 1.47 percent a year
- Pittsburg County, OK: risk percentile 96, burn probability 1.30 percent a year
- Roger Mills County, OK: risk percentile 97, burn probability 1.35 percent a year
What does wildfire hardening cost and return in each county?
The package cost is the modeled cost of the hardening package in each county, and the payback is the simple package payback in years. Compare the cost, the modeled annual savings and the payback to see what hardening returns in each county.
- Ellis County, OK: package cost $80,938.00, annual savings $3,819.93, payback 21.2 years
- Pittsburg County, OK: package cost $80,938.00, annual savings $3,411.03, payback 23.7 years
- Roger Mills County, OK: package cost $80,938.00, annual savings $3,538.32, payback 22.9 years
How wide is the package NPV band?
Each band runs from the authored pessimistic end to the authored optimistic end of the package NPV. Compare the bands to see the authored range of the modeled return of wildfire hardening in each county.
- Ellis County, OK: -$78,673.94 to -$7,424.12
- Pittsburg County, OK: -$82,097.39 to -$12,093.31
- Roger Mills County, OK: -$81,031.67 to -$10,639.80
What do the estimates cover?
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs. The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result. The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
The displayed numbers are the native comparison API's outputs, rounded for display. Where the bands overlap, a numerical winner is not evidence of a statistically meaningful difference.
Calculation provenance
Ellis County, OK: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Pittsburg County, OK: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Roger Mills County, OK: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Retrieval times and response hashes are shown separately from source vintage. More wildfire comparisons and WildFireCost provide the next steps. Inspect the native comparison response; full economics may require your own product key.
Open a county in the calculator
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The calculator opens one county at a time. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs.
Open Ellis County, OK with these inputs
Open Pittsburg County, OK with these inputs
Open Roger Mills County, OK with these inputs
More from Smart Tech Invest
Calculation data
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| home_sqft | 2000 |
| current_premium | 2500 |
| replacement_value | 500000 |
| ownership_horizon | 10 |
| Measure | Ellis County, OK | Pittsburg County, OK | Roger Mills County, OK |
|---|---|---|---|
| National risk-to-structures percentile (percentile) | 98 | 96 | 97 |
| County annual burn probability (fraction) | 0.014688118 | 0.012957237 | 0.013496058 |
| Hardening package cost (USD) | 80,938.00 | 80,938.00 | 80,938.00 |
| Modeled annual total savings (USD) | 3,819.93 | 3,411.03 | 3,538.32 |
| Modeled package NPV (USD) | -42,173.88 | -46,323.34 | -45,031.62 |
| Simple package payback (years) | 21.2 | 23.7 | 22.9 |
| Discount rate (fraction) | 0.0499 | 0.0499 | 0.0499 |
| Insurance inflation assumption (fraction) | 0.0527 | 0.0527 | 0.0527 |
| Regional cost multiplier (ratio) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Package NPV range, pessimistic end (authored reference ranges) (USD) | -78,673.94 | -82,097.39 | -81,031.67 |
| Package NPV range, optimistic end (authored reference ranges) (USD) | -7,424.12 | -12,093.31 | -10,639.80 |
| Distance from winning value (USD) | 0.00 | 4,149.46 | 2,857.74 |
| Decision | Winning value | Alternative value | Alternative value |
Winner: Ellis County, OK. Objective: maximize. Margin to next option: 2,857.74 USD. Assumption: Compare the same modeled hardening package by highest NPV; negative NPV means modeled benefits do not recover its cost over the selected horizon.
- winner
- county-40045
- objective
- maximize
- metric
- total_npv
Source and assumptions
- One authenticated native GET comparison supplies every column. Each option receipt identifies its county within that same response; the response does not echo FIPS codes.
- All options use the same submitted home size, insurance premium, replacement value and ownership horizon. The API does not echo every input; input identity is the request, not a second observation.
- Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability.
- Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings.
- The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs.
- The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result.
- The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage.
Ellis County, OK. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-28T08:45:21.527Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
9116e78debf6c2777c0f03bd365f54524364ec62546f398b83b81833195842ecPittsburg County, OK. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-28T08:45:21.527Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
9116e78debf6c2777c0f03bd365f54524364ec62546f398b83b81833195842ecRoger Mills County, OK. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-28T08:45:21.527Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
9116e78debf6c2777c0f03bd365f54524364ec62546f398b83b81833195842ecQuestions about this comparison
Which county has the strongest modeled result?
Ellis County, OK has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$42,173.88. The margin to the next option is $2,857.74. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
Are the inputs identical across counties?
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response.
What do the numbers mean, and what is unavailable?
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs. The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result. The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
How can I change these inputs?
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The calculator opens one county at a time. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs.