Hemphill County, TX vs Hutchinson County, TX vs Roberts County, TX: 10-year wildfire hardening comparison at $500,000.00 replacement value
Roberts County, TX has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$19,033.17. The margin to the next option is $2,270.89. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
The same home scenario in each county
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response. The table shows the exact returned figures, including each alternative, the winning value and the margin. A higher modeled NPV does not mean a county is safer. Higher modeled avoided losses can reflect greater modeled fire exposure.
Read the estimates within their limits
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs. The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result. The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
The displayed numbers are the native comparison API's outputs. The article does not derive annual probability from a percentile or replace unavailable values with zero. The source gives each county an authored package NPV band, not a statistical interval; where the bands overlap, the order is a model result and a numerical winner is not evidence of a statistically meaningful difference.
Open a county in the calculator
Open Hemphill County, TX with these inputs
Open Hutchinson County, TX with these inputs
Open Roberts County, TX with these inputs
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The deployed calculator opens one county at a time and currently uses its numeric defaults rather than reading numeric URL parameters. Those defaults match this comparison. Its county route can use different regional assumptions, so it is not a reproduction of the native compare estimate.
More wildfire comparisons and WildFireCost provide the next steps. Inspect the native comparison response; full economics may require your own product key.
Calculation provenance
Hemphill County, TX: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Hutchinson County, TX: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Roberts County, TX: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary; Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated; sample size UNAVAILABLE. Retrieval times and response hashes are shown separately from source vintage.
More from Smart Tech Invest
Calculation data
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| home_sqft | 2000 |
| current_premium | 2500 |
| replacement_value | 500000 |
| ownership_horizon | 10 |
| Measure | Hemphill County, TX | Hutchinson County, TX | Roberts County, TX |
|---|---|---|---|
| National risk-to-structures percentile (percentile) | 99 | 99 | 100 |
| County annual burn probability (fraction) | 0.025378621 | 0.024065081 | 0.026325895 |
| Hardening package cost (USD) | 85,697.00 | 85,697.00 | 85,697.00 |
| Modeled annual total savings (USD) | 6,345.47 | 6,035.16 | 6,569.25 |
| Modeled package NPV (USD) | -21,304.06 | -24,453.04 | -19,033.17 |
| Simple package payback (years) | 13.5 | 14.2 | 13 |
| Discount rate (fraction) | 0.0499 | 0.0499 | 0.0499 |
| Insurance inflation assumption (fraction) | 0.0527 | 0.0527 | 0.0527 |
| Regional cost multiplier (ratio) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Package NPV range, pessimistic end (authored reference ranges) (USD) | -64,015.59 | -66,613.59 | -62,142.01 |
| Package NPV range, optimistic end (authored reference ranges) (USD) | 18,379.34 | 14,835.97 | 20,934.69 |
| Distance from winning value (USD) | 2,270.89 | 5,419.87 | 0.00 |
| Decision | Alternative value | Alternative value | Winning value |
Winner: Roberts County, TX. Objective: maximize. Margin to next option: 2,270.89 USD. Assumption: Compare the same modeled hardening package by highest NPV; negative NPV means modeled benefits do not recover its cost over the selected horizon.
- winner
- county-48393
- objective
- maximize
- metric
- total_npv
Source and assumptions
- One authenticated native GET comparison supplies every column. Each option receipt identifies its county within that same response; the response does not echo FIPS codes.
- All options use the same submitted home size, insurance premium, replacement value and ownership horizon. The API does not echo every input; input identity is the request, not a second observation.
- Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability.
- Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings.
- The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs.
- The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result.
- The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage.
Hemphill County, TX. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-13T08:45:08.877Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
92f2712fa62f64016bb5314b5fe07276cb84c55005b6f4071de58e3a66a4d3e6Hutchinson County, TX. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-13T08:45:08.877Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
92f2712fa62f64016bb5314b5fe07276cb84c55005b6f4071de58e3a66a4d3e6Roberts County, TX. Data layer: WildFireCost county risk and hardening model. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities V2, 2026 county summary. Vintage: Risk summary: 2026; discount rate observed 2026-09-01; insurance price rate observed 2026-08-01; cost multiplier undated. Sample size: UNAVAILABLE.
Fetched: 2026-10-13T08:45:08.877Z
Source updated: Unreported
Cache: Unreported
Response SHA-256
92f2712fa62f64016bb5314b5fe07276cb84c55005b6f4071de58e3a66a4d3e6Questions about this comparison
Which county has the strongest modeled result?
Roberts County, TX has the highest modeled hardening NPV: -$19,033.17. The margin to the next option is $2,270.89. Every compared package has negative NPV over this horizon. This orders county model estimates, not property safety or investment suitability.
Are the inputs identical across counties?
Each county uses 2000 square feet, $2,500.00 current annual premium, $500,000.00 replacement value and 10 years. Only the county changes. All columns come from one native compare response.
What do the numbers mean, and what is unavailable?
Burn probability is a county mean over wildfire-exposed land, not the probability of loss for a particular home. Risk percentile is a national rank, never an annual probability. Dollar figures are model outputs, not contractor quotes, measured losses or guaranteed insurance discounts. Total annual savings combines modeled avoided loss and insurance savings. The compare route runs the same computation as the county report, so totals agree for the same inputs. A county report opened with different home inputs returns different totals; compare only figures computed from one set of inputs. The API supplies no calculation sample size. Each county's package NPV range is an authored pessimistic-to-optimistic band from the reference cost, discount and risk-reduction ranges, not a statistical interval; where two bands overlap, the NPV order is a model result. The discount rate (FRED GS10) is observed 2026-09-01; the insurance price rate (PCU5241265241262) is observed 2026-08-01. The regional cost multiplier and measure ranges are authored values with no collection date. Retrieval time is not source vintage. The risk source is the USFS 2026 county summary; package sample size is UNAVAILABLE.
How can I change these inputs?
Each county link carries that county and all shared inputs. The deployed calculator opens one county at a time and currently uses its numeric defaults rather than reading numeric URL parameters. Those defaults match this comparison. Its county route can use different regional assumptions, so it is not a reproduction of the native compare estimate.